The Kenya Finance Bill 2024 has catalyzed significant political and social unrest in Kenya, leading to widespread protests, predominantly spearheaded by the youth. The bill proposed substantial tax increases on essential items and services, including internet data, fuel, and bank transfers, which the government argued were necessary to manage the national debt and reduce the budget deficit. However, these measures were perceived as punitive by many Kenyans already struggling with a high cost of living and economic hardships.
The protests began on June 18, 2024, following the public release of the bill, and quickly spread from Nairobi to other parts of the country. Despite resistance from the government and attempts to quell the unrest, the protests intensified, leading to violent clashes that sadly caused several deaths and destruction of property including parts of the parliament that were set on fire.
In response to the escalating situation, President William Ruto announced the withdrawal of the Finance Bill on June 26, 2024. However, the protests did not cease. The youth continued to mobilize online and in the streets, driven by broader grievances such as unemployment, corruption, and the high cost of living. These ongoing demonstrations highlight the deep-seated discontent among Kenyans, particularly the younger generation, towards the current economic and political environment.
It is against this background that GeoPoll conducted a nationwide survey to capture the sentiments and perceptions of Kenyan youth regarding the state of the country and the ongoing protests. This report provides a detailed analysis of these findings, highlighting important demographic insights where relevant.
The survey gathered responses from a diverse group of young Kenyans. Most respondents were aged 18-24 (62%), with a balanced representation of females (51%) and males (49%). A majority held college degrees (66%), while 52% were unemployed, and 20% owned small businesses. Respondents were predominantly from urban (48%) and suburban (25%) areas.
We started by asking the respondents how they felt at that point (28th and 29th July). The findings point to a range of emotions with the majority neutral (37%) or positive (27%), and a smaller proportion expressing negative (20%) or very negative (13%) sentiments. Among the ones with positive feelings, the respondents said they were mostly hopeful (46%), happy (24%), empowered (14%) or excited (12%). Those who had negative feelings said they were feeling concerned (37%), sad (19%), or helpless (19%).
Asked about their three biggest issues of concern in the country, unemployment (89%), corruption (84%) and cost of living (82%) stood out, followed by healthcare (28%), education (24%) and security (18%).
The root of the ongoing protests was the Kenya Finance Bill 2024 which has been consequently withdrawn. The national conversations have been so widespread that almost all Kenyans (98%) are aware of the Finance Bill 2024.
Asked how the believe the bill would have impacted their cost of living, majority of the respondents (71%) say it would have significantly increased the cost of living and an additional 11% say it will increase slightly. Only 15% thought the Bill would have reduced the cost of living by any degree, highlighting a widespread dissatisfaction with the Finance Bill.
The bill faced widespread discontent, with 87% of respondents expressing dissatisfaction. This sentiment was more pronounced among older respondents, peaking at 94% in the 35-45 age group. Males showed slightly higher dissatisfaction (90%) compared to females (88%). Higher education levels correlated with greater dissatisfaction, with 91% of college graduates disapproving of the bill.
A significant 64% of respondents reported participating in the protests. This trend was particularly strong among the 25-34 age group, with 67% involvement. Both genders had similar participation rates, and those with higher education levels, such as degree holders, were more likely to participate (71%).
Most (89%) believed the protests reflected a general dissatisfaction with the government.
When asked to rate the justification for the protests out of ten, 66% give it high scores above 7/10, with over half saying the protests are absolutely justified (10/10).
Despite the President withdrawing the Finance Bill, protests have persisted. Respondents provided a range of reasons for continuing their protests, which reflect deep-seated issues and frustrations with the government. The government’s response to these concerns will be crucial in determining the future stability and progress of the nation. Addressing the high cost of living, combating corruption, creating job opportunities, improving governance, and ensuring accountability are essential steps to meet the protesters’ demands and restore public trust. Here is an analysis of the key themes that emerged from their open ended responses:
The GeoPoll survey sought to understand how the ongoing protests might influence government policies. Respondents provided a range of perspectives, highlighting both potential positive and negative impacts. Here is an analysis of the key themes that emerged from their responses
Many respondents expressed hope that the protests would lead to positive changes in government policies. They believe that the government will be more inclined to listen to the voices of the people and engage more actively with citizens before making significant decisions. Some of the anticipated positive impacts include:
On the other hand, several respondents expressed concerns about the potential negative consequences of the protests on government policies. These concerns include:
A portion of the respondents were uncertain about the potential impact of the protests on government policies. They expressed a wait-and-see attitude, acknowledging that while the protests have raised important issues, it remains to be seen how the government will respond in the long term.
There have been calls by the international community including the UN, the AU and several countries’ ambassadors for a better response to the ongoing protests. Consistent across the age groups, genders most the respondents (82%) believe that the international community should intervene in response to the protests.
Most of the youth interviewed (74%) feel the government is not addressing their needs. Despite the survey running after the president’s withdrawal of the Finance Bill, 65% of the respondents feel that their voices were not being heard by the government.
Do you feel the government is addressing the needs of the youth?
No Data Found
Do you feel that your voice is heard by the government?
No Data Found
When asked to list actions they would like the government to take in order to better support the youth, young people in Kenya are calling for practical solutions that address their immediate and long-term needs. From the open-ended responses in the survey, several key themes emerge regarding what the youth believe the government should do to support them better. Here are the most commonly mentioned responses.
In the heat of the protests and the following conversations, there were strong sentiments on various companies based on their conduct during the protests. Some brands were roundly criticized while others were highly praised. In the survey, we sought to understand the youths’ perceived role of brands and businesses in social causes.
“Majority of the respondents (85%) think it is important or very important for brands to engage in social causes.
Actually, the youth value values such as transparency (67%), customer service (49%), ethical practices (45%) and corporate social responsibility (32%) if they are to trust a brand. Quality of products and services (65%) also ranks high.
We also asked them to name brands they believe are doing a good job in supporting social causes. Get the full, raw list for free by contacting us.
The biggest push and organization of the “leaderless, tribeless, and partyless” demonstrations has been done online, with record breaking X space attendances and impressions on Tiktok. It was therefore not a surprise that most respondents cited social media as the most relied on for information about the protests (80%).
The dichotomy between mainstream media and social media was evident in the survey responses. Television (79%) was cited as the most trusted channel followed by Twitter (50%) and TikTok (39%). Overall, mainstream media, trusted by 60% of respondents, was seen as more reliable for factual reporting. In contrast, social media, trusted by 80%, was valued for its immediacy and the ability to mobilize and organize protests. This contrast highlights the complementary roles these media sources play in information dissemination and public engagement.
Comparing mainstream and social media, there was more trust in the former. The majority said they had “a lot of trust” in the mainstream, while a majority said they have “some trust” in social media.
During such times, there is a high likelihood of minsinformation spreading. The youth in Kenya seem to be cognizant of that fact, because when we asked if the respondents verify the news and information they consume, majority (46%) said they “Always” do while 17% said they “Often” verify news and information, highlighting a proactive approach among the youth in ensuring the accuracy of the information they receive.
Overall, ratings for the media’s coverage of the protests were mostly positive, with the majority of repondents saying it was very good (47%) or good (30%).
A common observation in several elections, not just in Kenya but many countries, is voter apathy among the youth. Asked if they voted in the last election, 22% overall said they had not even though they were eligible to vote, especially in the 18-24 age group (28%).
Current circumstances have driven the youth into a heightened sense of civic responsibility as evidenced by their active involvement in demonstrations and articulation of desired government actions. This new commitment is likely to be felt in the next elections, with 84% saying that they will vote in the next election to influence future political outcomes.
In our survey, we asked Kenyan youth to share their hopes and aspirations for the country over the next six months. The responses pinpoint to a population that will be actively involved in checking the government and demanding for improvement especially in matters cost of living, governance, corruption and overall decision-making.
In response to the question “How optimistic are you about the future of the country?” the majority of the respondents (36%) expressed optimism. However, it’s important to note that 27% were neutral and only 22% were very optimistic. Despite this guarded optimism, the youth, who have found their collective voice, believe that things will be better for Kenya in the future.
This survey was conducted using the GeoPoll Application on June 28th and 29th, 2024. The survey included 1,049 respondents targeting Kenyans aged 18-45, predominantly the youth (62% aged 18-24 and 27% aged 25-34). Gender distribution was balanced, with 51% females and 49% males. Education levels varied: 66% had college degrees, 14% had secondary education, and 12% had vocational training. Geographically, the sample was nationally representative across all 47 counties.
Data was analyzed using statistical methods to identify trends and demographic differences, providing a nuanced understanding of youth perspectives. Qualitative responses were thematically analyzed, offering deeper insights into motivations and sentiments.
This report is a summary of the full findings. If you would like to request the full raw data for your own analysis, a tailored report, or to conduct follow up surveys, please contact us.